Three degrees warmer in 2200

Three degrees 

The Paris Climate Agreement was dead in the water before the ink dried on the thousand page document to mangle metaphors. Only the madly ambitious and the plainly mad believed for a moment that this objective was realistic. Christianity has been around for two thousand years. I rest my case. 

 My totally unqualified guesstimate at the time is that by the end of this century we would see an average increase of three degrees on a regular basis. All the scientific evidence points to my being more correct than Paris. I have charged nothing for my advice and could have saved billions in wasted time and money and tropical forests felled to produce the papers required. 

 We should work out as best we can the effects of a three degree rise and then plan for it while we still have time. What the world will look like in seventy five years time will not be pleasant and the temptation exists to shield the public from what they must know. 

 Forget the annual rounds of agreements that no one sensible really believes in but plan for what will almost certainly happen. Then we can draw up a list of actions that will mitigate the outcome by a millionth of one per cent. 

Schools, families and companies should be able to see the tiny tiny changes their actions deliver. Then every achievement will be a real victory not a lost cause on the Quixotic land of windmills and impossible dreams. Faced with real improvements against a likely end game people can work with hope and certainty their efforts are making a real difference. 

A three per cent increase will be truly terrible and we should pull no punches. But every one hundredth of one per cent will equally convey huge benefits. So instead of a campaign condemned to continual and ultimate failure we have a clear sighted map of how to make the truly terrible a little less. Let’s get real. No one really believes in 1.5 per cent.

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